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Last update: T_KMOP (10.05.2011)
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Last update: T_KMOP (05.05.2011)
Aims of this course are to provide basic overview on (i) climate extremes (temperature, precipitation, and other) from global as well as regional points of view, (ii) statistical models used for the description of extremes, (iii) abilities of climate models to simulate extremes, (iv) selected impacts associated with climate extremes, and (v) possibilities of construction of climate change scenarios of extremes and their uncertainties. |
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Last update: doc. Mgr. Jiří Mikšovský, Ph.D. (19.10.2017)
Ústní zkouška v rozsahu témat daných sylabem. |
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Last update: doc. RNDr. Jan Kyselý, Ph.D. (05.01.2022)
Coles S (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer, 228 pp. Diaz HF, Murnane RJ (2008) Climate extremes and society. Cambridge University Press, 340 pp. Gettelman A, Rood RB (2016) Demystifying Climate Models. A Users Guide to Earth System Models. Springer, 282 pp (available at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8). Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1997) Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, 242 pp. Kropp JP, Schellnhuber HJ (2011) In extremis. Disruptive events and trends in climate and hydrology. Springer, 320 pp. |
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Last update: T_KMOP (05.05.2011)
Lecture |
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Last update: doc. Mgr. Jiří Mikšovský, Ph.D. (19.10.2017)
Ústní zkouška v rozsahu témat daných sylabem. |
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Last update: T_KMOP (05.05.2011)
Climate extremes - basic terms and overview. Definition of an extreme event, temporal and spatial scales of climate extremes, extremes in paleoclimatic data. Temperature extremes, precipitation extremes, hydrometeorological extremes, wind- and snow-storms, extremes of pressure fields, examples. Relationship of extremes to atmospheric circulation and patterns of other variables in synoptic scale.
Statistical models of extremes. Block maxima and peaks-over-threshold models. Selection of block and threshold, basic assumptions of the models. Stationary and non-stationary models of extremes. Regional and local frequency analysis, region-of-influence method. Probability distributions in the extreme value analysis, Poisson process. Methods for estimation of distribution parameters and uncertainty. Return period, design values. Models for multi-day extremes based on time series simulation. Examples of statistical models for temperature and precipitation extremes.
Simulation of extremes in climate models. Methods for comparison of observed and simulated data, spatial and point values. Extremes in global climate models, model errors. Statistical and dynamical downscaling. Temperature and precipitation extremes in regional climate models, continental, regional, local scales. Examples of analysis of current climate models over Europe and the Czech Republic.
Impacts of climate extremes on society, ecosystems, environment. Impacts of high temperatures, droughts, heavy precipitation, wind storms. Examples of recent extremes over Europe - heat waves in western Europe 2003 and eastern Europe 2010, floods in central Europe, wind storms.
Climate change scenarios of climate extremes. Possibilities of construction of scenarios under changing radiative properties of the atmosphere, sources of uncertainty. Scenarios of temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe. Other influences on the occurrence of climate extremes, solar and volcanic activity. |
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Last update: doc. Mgr. Jiří Mikšovský, Ph.D. (05.02.2021)
Absolvování bakalářského studia. Způsob výuky bude upřesněn po domluvě s vyučujícím, studenti prosím kontaktujte vyučujícího před začátkem semestru. |