Population Projections and Forecasts - MD360P94

• Title: Population Projections and Forecasts
• Czech title: Populační projekce a prognózy
• Guaranteed by: Department of Demography and Geodemography (31-360)
• Faculty: Faculty of Science
• Actual: from 2024
• Semester: winter
• E-Credits: 6
• Examination process: winter s.:combined
• Hours per week, examination: winter s.:2/2, C+Ex [HT]
• Capacity: unlimited
• Min. number of students: unlimited
• 4EU+: no
• Virtual mobility / capacity: no
• State of the course: taught
• Language: English
• Note: enabled for web enrollment; priority enrollment if the course is part of the study plan
• Guarantor: RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Teacher(s): RNDr. Tomáš Kučera, CSc.
• Class: Mobilní učebna pro kurz(y) Population P. notebooky; Mobilní učebna pro kurz(y) Population P. dataproj.; Instalace SW; Původní předmět

Annotation

The course provides a foundational orientation to theoretical and methodological issues in population forecasting, with the aim of training students to construct population projections and forecasts, and to interpret and apply their results correctly. A brief introduction to forecasting terminology and the classification of population forecasts precedes the discussion of theoretical and methodological issues.
In this section, population forecasting is presented as a broad, systematic process guided by general principles of demographic inquiry and by a set of international recommendations. The staging, conceptual distinctions, and content of individual forecasting steps form the course’s core trajectory. Within this framework, we address methods for identifying, describing, and analysing the population system development, constructing the projection model and making forecast assumptions for its parameters; carrying out projection calculations; presenting results; and monitoring and evaluating the forecast.
Lectures also cover the history and main trends in population forecasting, systems for producing official population forecasts in selected countries, the social and political context of this activity, and current population prospects for the Czech Republic and the world. Seminars focus on the methodology and findings of recent global and national population forecasts.

Last update: Kučera Tomáš, RNDr., CSc. (20.10.2025)

Literature

Armstrong, S.J. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York 2002. Dostupné na: http://b-ok.org/book/542532/47656b

Lutz, W., J. W. Vaupel, D. A. Ahlburg. Frontiers of Population Forecasting. A Supplement to Population and Development Review, 1998, 24. Dostupné na: https://www.jstor.org/stable/i330210

Keilman, N. W. Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. NIDI Working Paper. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse 1990.

Keilman, N. W. a T. Kučera. The Impact of Forecasting Methodology on the Accuracy of National Population Forecasts: Evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia. Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 10, 371-398. Dostupné prostřednictvím: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3980100403

Keyfitz, N. How Demographers Know the Present and Forecast the Future. Paper presented at the IUSSP Conference "Population Science in the Service of Mankind". Vienna 1979.

Keyfitz, N. The Limits of Population Forecasting. Population and Development Review, 1981, 7, 579-593.

Keyfitz, N. The Social and Political Context of Population Forecasting. IIASA Working Paper WP-84-003. IIASA, Laxenburg 1984. Dostupné na: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2515/1/WP-84-003.pdf

Kučera, T. Regionální populační prognózy: teorie a praxe prognózování vývoje lidských zdrojů v území. Disertační práce. Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Přírodovědecká fakulta, Praha 1998.

Long, J. F. Complexity, Accuracy, and Utility of Official Population Projections. Mathematical Population Studies: An International Journal of Mathematical Demography 5, no. 3. Dostupné na: http://booksc.org/book/38918148/8cc7ec

Pavlík, Z., J. Rychtaříková a A. Šubrtová: Základy demografie. Academia, Praha 1986.

Rogers, A. Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions. John Wiley & Sons, New York 1995.

Smith S. K., J. T. David and A. Swanson. A Practitioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections. Springer, Heidelberg 2013. Dostupné na: http://b-ok.org/book/2312910/9f876b

Ter Heide, H. a F. J. Willekens, eds. Demographic Research and Spatial Policy: the Dutch Experience. Academic Press, London 1984.

Readings in Population Research Methodology: Volume 5 Population Models, Projections and Estimates (Chapter 17 Population Projections: Age-Sex-Race/Ethnicity). UNFPA, New York 1993.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2024. Dostupné na: https://desapublications.un.org/file/20622/download

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections (UN DESA/POP/2024/DC/NO. 10). Dostupné na: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2024_Methodology-Report_Final.pdf

Last update: Kučera Tomáš, RNDr., CSc. (20.10.2025)

Requirements to the exam

·                 20% Tutorial

·                 30% Presentation

·                 50% Exam                          

The final grade for this module will be based on the completion of exercises and homework for the tutorial sessions, the presentation prepared for a seminar and the passing the final exam. 

Last update: Kučera Tomáš, RNDr., CSc. (20.10.2025)

Syllabus

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to:

·     Distinguish clearly between a population projection (model-based, assumption-driven) and a population forecast (decision-oriented, policy-facing).

·     Formulate an appropriate population forecast brief (assignment), including scope, horizon, variants, and required outputs.

·     Explain and apply the concept of population forecasting as a continuous process, including updating and revision.

·     Verify completeness and evaluate the quality of population forecasts (inputs, methods, assumptions, diagnostics).

·     Interpret population forecasts correctly and communicate their results and uncertainty.

·     Present and critically discuss the history of population forecasting and the principal population perspectives for the Czech Republic and the world.

Themes & Seminar Topics

T1:
(a) Course format, objectives, syllabus, timeline, study requirements, and conditions for completion.
(b) Introduction to population forecasts: defining basic concepts (population development, forecast, population forecast, and demographic projection), the relationship between forecasts and knowledge, attributes of forecasts, and the classification of population forecasts.

T2:
(a) History of population forecasting worldwide and in the Czech Republic; overview of major schools of population forecasting; recommended readings.
(b) Methodological development — approaches and methods:
(i) Population development as an undifferentiated process: modeling numerical population growth and the structure problem;
(ii) Population development as a differentiated process: the cohort-component model and its modifications;
(iii) Applying systems thinking to population forecasting; overview of the stages in producing a population forecast; forecasting as a continuous activity.

T3:
(a) Defining the population under forecast: target population and forecasted population; principles of disaggregating the forecasted population.
(b) Description and forecast-oriented analysis of current trends: categorizing and collecting information on the forecasted population; overview of indicators used for forecast-oriented analysis of population development; basic principles for analyzing components of population change—fertility, mortality, and migration; identifying elements of stability and revealing trends; randomness and ways to mitigate it.

T4: Constructing the projection model: the classical cohort-component model of population change; multiregional and multistate models.

T5: Forecasting the parameters of the projection model: parameters and sensitivity analysis of the model; general principles for formulating forecast assumptions; adjustment factors; practical demonstration of compiling component forecasts for fertility, mortality, and migration.

T6:
(a) Projection calculations: software support for projection calculations (LIPRO, DemProj) and the use of spreadsheet software (MS Excel).
(b) Presenting the results of population forecasts: uncertainty and methods for communicating uncertainty; standard content and structure of publications reporting population forecast results.

T7:
(a) Evaluating forecasts;
(b) Measuring “inaccuracy” in forecast results, general features of inaccuracy in population forecasts, findings from selected evaluations;
(c) Interpreting and applying forecast results: the uncertainty of prognostic results versus the definiteness required in planning and decision-making; common planning/decision-making stereotypes in approaching population forecasts; principles for working with variants when applying forecast results.

S1: Methodology and results of the World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.
Pairs of students study and clearly present (with their own commentary grounded in course material) an assigned component of the UN forecasting methodology to their peers and answer audience questions.

S2: Global population development according to the latest UN forecasts.
Independent preparation, an introductory presentation by the instructor, followed by a guided discussion of the key issues in expected global and regional population development.

S3: Recap of course content and discussion of takeaways structured by the examination questions.

Last update: Kučera Tomáš, RNDr., CSc. (20.10.2025)

Entry requirements

Basic knowledge of demography, ability to work with a personal computer, basic mastery of work with MS Excel, DA I and DA II exam.

Last update: Kučera Tomáš, RNDr., CSc. (20.10.2025)