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This course provides a comprehensive examination of past and expected global population development from
early historical periods to the end of the 21st century. It explores the development of population size and age-sex structures of population at the global and country level, key transitions in fertility, mortality, migration, and age structure, and considers both the diversity and commonalities of population trajectories and demographic patterns. The course aims to contextualise population dynamics within broader economic, social, political, cultural and environmental frameworks. It draws on demographic theory, empirical data, and international comparative perspectives to foster critical understanding of historical and contemporary challenges and future scenarios. Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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Assessment:
8 ECTS credits Component Weight (%) Assignment 1 (historical/theoretical paper, 900-1200 words) 20% Assignment 2 (applied regional case study, 900-1200 words) 20% Final written exam 60%
Assignments: Each student must submit two written assignments based on approved topics. Exam: The written exam will assess students’ understanding of demographic concepts and their ability to synthesise key trends and challenges. Consultation: Each student must attend at least two consultation sessions per assignment to discuss their assignment topic and receive feedback. Conditions for Passing:Submission of both assignments on time. Minimum 50% score on the final exam. Attendance at least four consultation sessions. Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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Resources & Reading List:
Core Literature: John C. Caldwell (2006): Demographic Transition Theory. Springer. Jean-Claude Chesnais (1992): The Demographic Transition. Clarendon Press Tim Dyson (2010): Population and Development. Zed Books. Sergey P. Kapitza (2004): Global population Blow-up. Nauka, Moscow. UN DESA: World Population Prospects (different editions, 1990-2024), World Fertility Report, World Mortality Report Supplementary Readings:Rodolfo A. Bulatao & John B. Casterline (2001): Global Fertility Transition - [ Pison (2011): World Population: Seven billions today, how many tomorrow? - [ Omran (1971/1982): Epidemiologic Transition Theory - [ Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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Assessment:
8 ECTS credits Component Weight (%) Assignment 1 (historical/theoretical paper, 900-1200 words) 20% Assignment 2 (applied regional case study, 900-1200 words) 20% Final written exam 60%
Assignments: Each student must submit two written assignments based on approved topics. Exam: The written exam will assess students’ understanding of demographic concepts and their ability to synthesise key trends and challenges. Consultation: Each student must attend at least two consultation sessions per assignment to discuss their assignment topic and receive feedback. Conditions for Passing:Submission of both assignments on time. Minimum 50% score on the final exam. Attendance at least four consultation sessions. Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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1. Introduction: World Population in Perspective
o Historical data sources, their quality and methodological issues of studying past population development o Population growth through history 2. Basic Theories of Demographic Changeo Malthusian theory, demographic revolution/transition, second demographic transition o Epidemiological transition 3. Fertility Transition: Global Patterns and Regional Specificitieso Historical fertility trends and modern fertility decline o High fertility contexts and policy implications 4. Mortality Transition and Epidemiological Changeo Life expectancy, historical mortality crises, global health disparities o COVID-19 and its demographic implications 5. Migration and Urbanisationo Drivers of migration and global migration regimes o Urbanisation and its demographic consequences 6. Population Structures: Age, Sex, and Familyo Demographic window of opportunity, demographic dividend, and demographic ageing o Marriage, divorce, and changing household structures 7. Regional Perspectives on Population Developmento Europe, Russia and post-Soviet countries, Asia with a specific focus on China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea, the Americas, the Islamic world, and Sub-Saharan Africa. o Demographic diversity in the world, policy challenges, and development links 8. The Future of the Global Populationo Changing view of the UN DESA Population Division on population development in the world in the 21st century. o Sustainable development in the context of expected demographic changes Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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Having successfully completed this course, a student will be able to: · Explain the historical trends and demographic transitions shaping global population development. · Identify and assess the changing impact of key components of population change, including fertility, mortality, and migration, on population development. · Compare and contrast demographic developments across world regions using quantitative and qualitative evidence. · Evaluate the implications of demographic change for social and economic development, environment, and public policies. · Apply theoretical models and demographic indicators to critically analyse historical and future scenarios of population change. Last update: Janáková Kuprová Barbora, RNDr., Ph.D. (14.05.2025)
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