Budoucí změny v sezónní sněhové pokrývce a její dopady na jarní a letní odtok z horských povodí
| Thesis title in Czech: | Budoucí změny v sezónní sněhové pokrývce a její dopady na jarní a letní odtok z horských povodí |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | Future changes in seasonal snowpack and impacts on spring and summer runoff in mountain areas |
| Key words: | změny klimatu, sněhová pokrývka, odtok ze sněhu, nízké průtoky |
| English key words: | climate changes, snow cover, snowmelt runoff, low flows |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2018/2019 |
| Thesis type: | dissertation |
| Thesis language: | čeština |
| Department: | Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology (31-330) |
| Supervisor: | doc. RNDr. Michal Jeníček, Ph.D. |
| Author: | RNDr. Ondřej Hotový - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 03.10.2018 |
| Date of assignment: | 08.10.2018 |
| Preliminary scope of work |
| Alpine catchments are largely influenced by snow, but it is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. Many studies show that changes in seasonal snowpack and their influence on annual/seasonal runoff are widely investigated. However, there is still limited information of how snowpack changes impact runoff extremes, such as low flows in the warm period and how this relation will change with predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the objective of this phd project is 1) to quantify how long snowmelt affects runoff during warm period, 2) to simulate the effect of predicted increase in air temperature and thus decrease in snowfall fraction on spring and summer low flows and 3) to explain the role of catchment attributes on low flows sensitivity. The project solution will combine statistical analysis of long-term observations from selected mountain catchments in central Europe. Modelling approaches will be used to simulate the effect of predicted climate change on snow and groundwater storage and consequent runoff (using results from regional climate models based on selected Representative Concentration Pathways). This enables to identify areas potentially affected by the mentioned future hydrological change. |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Alpine catchments are largely influenced by snow, but it is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. Many studies show that changes in seasonal snowpack and their influence on annual/seasonal runoff are widely investigated. However, there is still limited information of how snowpack changes impact runoff extremes, such as low flows in the warm period and how this relation will change with predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the objective of this phd project is 1) to quantify how long snowmelt affects runoff during warm period, 2) to simulate the effect of predicted increase in air temperature and thus decrease in snowfall fraction on spring and summer low flows and 3) to explain the role of catchment attributes on low flows sensitivity. The project solution will combine statistical analysis of long-term observations from selected mountain catchments in central Europe. Modelling approaches will be used to simulate the effect of predicted climate change on snow and groundwater storage and consequent runoff (using results from regional climate models based on selected Representative Concentration Pathways). This enables to identify areas potentially affected by the mentioned future hydrological change. |