Lesk a bída astrologie

• Thesis title in Czech: Lesk a bída astrologie
• Thesis title in English: The Splendors and Miseries of Astrology
• Academic year of topic announcement: 2025/2026
• Thesis type: Bachelor's thesis
• Thesis language: čeština
• Department: Department of Philosophy and History of Science (31-107)
• Supervisor: Mgr. Petr Tureček, Ph.D.

Preliminary scope of work

V posledních několika letech se vyostřila diskuze o empirické validitě astrologických predikcí (Clearer Thinking, 2024). Ačkoliv si lze představit, že místo i doba narození se částečně odrazí v osobnosti člověka a tyto případné pravidelnosti lze extrahovat heuristicky ověřeným modelem (byť zbytečně složitým a s neadekvátně pojmenovanými parametry), žádný z větších výzkumů (snad až na ten, který na demografických datech ukázal, že lidé narození ve stejný měsíc tvoří o necelé procento častěji stabilní páry (Voas, 2007)) dosud systematicky neprokázal, že by se astrologické predikce systematicky odlišovaly od náhodných.
Tímto postřehem by ale výzkum astrologie v přírodních vědách neměl skončit, naopak! Je třeba si klást otázku, jak se mohl systém bez jakékoliv prediktivní validity vůbec vyvinout a pak se po tisíciletí udržet. V rámci jakých užitkových funkcí je tedy astrologie optimalizovaná? Je to jen produkce takzvaných Barnum-Forerových výroků (Howard, 2019)? Je za současnou podobu astrologie zodpovědná i touha člověka získat kontrolu nad nepredikovatelnými událostmi (Singh, 2018)? A jak je možné, že tato touha nebyla dosud odselektována? Má to co dělat s různou rychlostí biologické a kulturní evoluce (Perreault, 2012)? A pokud ano, pozorujeme, že astrologie těží z některých známých biasů (Bebbington et al., 2016), které zvyšují pravděpodobnost jejího šíření jakožto dobře integrovaného mémplexu?
Bebbington, K., MacLeod, C., Ellison, T. M., & Fay, N. (2016). The sky is falling: Evidence of a negativity bias in the social transmission of information. Evolution and Human Behavior. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2016.07.004
Clearer Thinking. (2024, říjen 9). Clearer Thinking’s Study: Can astrologers truly gain insights about people from entire astrological charts? Clearer Thinking. https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/can-astrologers-use-astrological-charts-to-understand-people-s-character-and-lives-our-new-study-pu
Howard, J. (2019). Cognitive Errors and Diagnostic Mistakes: A Case-Based Guide to Critical Thinking in Medicine. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93224-8
Perreault, C. (2012). The Pace of Cultural Evolution. PLoS ONE, 7(9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045150
Singh, M. (2018). The cultural evolution of shamanism. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 41, e66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X17001893
Voas, D. (2007). Ten million marriages: A test of astrological „love signs". University of Manchester: Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research.

Preliminary scope of work in English

In recent years, the debate over the empirical validity of astrological predictions has intensified (Clearer Thinking, 2024). While it is conceivable that the time and place of birth might partially influence a person's character and that any such patterns could be extracted by a heuristically validated model (albeit overly complex and with inadequately named parameters), none of the larger studies (except perhaps the one that showed, using demographic data, that people born in the same month form stable couples nearly one percent more frequently (Voas, 2007)) have systematically demonstrated that astrological predictions differ systematically from chance.
However, this observation should not mark the end of astrology research in the natural sciences; quite the contrary! We must ask how a system with no predictive validity could have developed and then persisted for millennia. Under what utility functions is astrology optimized? Is it merely the production of so-called Barnum-Forer statements (Howard, 2019)? Is the current form of astrology also driven by humanity's desire to gain control over unpredictable events (Singh, 2018)? And how is it possible that this desire has not been selected against? Does it have something to do with the differing rates of biological and cultural evolution (Perreault, 2012)? And if so, are we observing that astrology benefits from certain well-known biases (Bebbington et al., 2016) that increase its likelihood of spreading as a well-integrated memeplex?
Bebbington, K., MacLeod, C., Ellison, T. M., & Fay, N. (2016). The sky is falling: Evidence of a negativity bias in the social transmission of information. Evolution and Human Behavior. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2016.07.004
Clearer Thinking. (2024, říjen 9). Clearer Thinking’s Study: Can astrologers truly gain insights about people from entire astrological charts? Clearer Thinking. https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/can-astrologers-use-astrological-charts-to-understand-people-s-character-and-lives-our-new-study-pu
Howard, J. (2019). Cognitive Errors and Diagnostic Mistakes: A Case-Based Guide to Critical Thinking in Medicine. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93224-8
Perreault, C. (2012). The Pace of Cultural Evolution. PLoS ONE, 7(9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045150
Singh, M. (2018). The cultural evolution of shamanism. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 41, e66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X17001893
Voas, D. (2007). Ten million marriages: A test of astrological „love signs". University of Manchester: Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research.