The Impact of Climate Change on the Geopolitics of the Arctic Circle
| Thesis title in Czech: | Dopad klimatických změn na Geopolitiku Arktidy |
|---|---|
| Thesis title in English: | The Impact of Climate Change on the Geopolitics of the Arctic Circle |
| Key words: | Geopolitika, Klimatická změna, Arktida |
| English key words: | Geopolitics, Artctic, Climate change |
| Academic year of topic announcement: | 2020/2021 |
| Thesis type: | diploma thesis |
| Thesis language: | angličtina |
| Department: | Department of Political Science (23-KP) |
| Supervisor: | PhDr. Mgr. et Mgr. Jakub Landovský, Ph.D. |
| Author: | hidden - assigned by the advisor |
| Date of registration: | 15.07.2021 |
| Date of assignment: | 15.07.2021 |
| Date and time of defence: | 24.01.2022 08:00 |
| Venue of defence: | Pekařská 16, JPEK301, 301, Malá učebna, 3.patro |
| Date of electronic submission: | 14.01.2022 |
| Date of proceeded defence: | 24.01.2022 |
| Opponents: | doc. Mgr. Bohumil Doboš, Ph.D. |
| URKUND check: | |
| Guidelines |
| Methodology:
By and large, the methodology of the thesis will be qualitative in nature; looking at drawing parallels between states’ past and potential future behaviour. The sources for examining this behaviour will include journalistic and academic articles, governmental and NGO white papers and similar material. If it is feasible, I will attempt to gather information directly from officials who are relevant to the topic, though this may prove too difficult to acquire. Additionally, there will be limited use of quantitative data, particularly when laying out the probable climatic changes that the Arctic will undergo in the near future and when sourcing the hard figures surrounding ongoing economic investment in the region. I intend to lay out the conversation surrounding the topic as it currently stands by conducting a thorough literature review of papers that have tackled similar topics in order to understand where the broad academic and professional consensus lies. The theoretical underpinning of the thesis will be based on the neorealist school of international relations with leanings towards offensive realism and “power-maximising” in regards to exploiting “untapped” territories. This will provide me with a framework in which to contextualise anticipated future behaviour and changes. |
| References |
| Current References / Bibliography:
- The Changing Shape of Arctic Security, NATO, 2019 https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2019/06/28/the-changing-shape-of-arctic-security/ind ex.html - NATO AND SECURITY IN THE ARCTIC, NATO, 2017 https://www.nato-pa.int/download-file?filename=sites/default/files/2017-11/2017%20-%20172 %20PCTR%2017%20E%20rev.1%20fin%20-%20NATO%20AND%20SECURITY%20IN%20 THE%20ARCTIC.pdf - The Geopolitics of a Changing Arctic, SIPRI, 2019 https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-12/sipribp1912_geopolitics_in_the_arctic.pdf - Russia's Arctic Security Policy: Still Quiet in the High North? SIPRI, 2017 https://www.sipri.org/publications/2016/sipri-policy-papers/russias-arctic-security-policy-still-qu iet-high-north - The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia, China and the EU, 2019, Wilfried Martens for European Studies https://martenscentre.eu/publications/new-geopolitics-arctic-russia-china-and-eu - A Balanced Arctic Policy for the EU, 2020, European Parliament https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2020/603498/EXPO_IDA%282020%2 9603498_EN.pdf - Understanding China’s Arctic activities, 2020, International Institute for Strategic Studies https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/02/china-arctic - The New Geopolitics of the Arctic Russia's and China's Evolving Role in the Region, 2018, RAND Corporation - https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT500.html |
| Preliminary scope of work |
| Topic Overview:
Date of registration: The thesis is intended to focus on the likely impact that global warming will have on the Arctic region in the near future. Throughout much of history the Arctic has been a “cold” spot in terms of geopolitical ambitions and conflicts. Given that the overwhelming majority of scientific data on the subject predicts severe climatic shifts in the Arctic even in a utopian best case scenario, it is very clear that the Arctic will become increasingly traversable and exploitable in the near future. In light of the emergence of geopolitical contests in newly exploitable regions throughout human history (the colonisation of the New World, the Scramble for Africa, amongst others), it seems unlikely that the Arctic will be any different. The thesis will attempt to establish probable avenues of conflict by examining the embryonic policies that are taking shape in the present day, for example the reactivation of Russian Arctic ports, the rising levels of Chinese investment in areas such as Greenland and disagreements over the legal status of Arctic waters. |
| Preliminary scope of work in English |
| Topic Overview:
Date of registration: The thesis is intended to focus on the likely impact that global warming will have on the Arctic region in the near future. Throughout much of history the Arctic has been a “cold” spot in terms of geopolitical ambitions and conflicts. Given that the overwhelming majority of scientific data on the subject predicts severe climatic shifts in the Arctic even in a utopian best case scenario, it is very clear that the Arctic will become increasingly traversable and exploitable in the near future. In light of the emergence of geopolitical contests in newly exploitable regions throughout human history (the colonisation of the New World, the Scramble for Africa, amongst others), it seems unlikely that the Arctic will be any different. The thesis will attempt to establish probable avenues of conflict by examining the embryonic policies that are taking shape in the present day, for example the reactivation of Russian Arctic ports, the rising levels of Chinese investment in areas such as Greenland and disagreements over the legal status of Arctic waters. Research Questions: - To what extent has the “co-operative” nature of high Arctic relations been driven by the extreme inaccessibility of the region? - In what ways will the warming of the northern polar region change the balance of power in the region? - Which powers are currently invested in the region? Who may become invested in the region? - Will the opening up of new trade corridors change relationships in the region? - Who are likely to be the major losers and winners in the event of the Arctic becoming a major shipping route? - What impacts will these shifts have on the wider geopolitical stage? - What developments have already happened? - China is investing heavily into the Arctic region, though not an Arctic power per se, they are likely to have a significant presence in the region. Will China follow a similar policy to what they do in Africa? A further potential friction point between the US and China? - China will not be marginalised during the development of the Arctic region. Will it play hard ball to ensure that it gets the voice it believes it deserves? Hypotheses: 1. The Arctic has historically been a relatively uncontested region in large part due to its remoteness and the extreme nature of its climate. As the climate shifts and the region becomes more hospitable there will be an influx of economic investment and demographic shifts in the region, including the potential use of the Arctic Ocean as a shipping lane. Due to this the Arctic will become increasingly “securitised” by powers both close and far. One should be able to observe the beginnings of this shift in the present day. 2. As a result of this “securitisation” it will be difficult to avoid increasing tensions in the region and the hitherto co-operative attitudes prevailing in the region will be challenged by realist concerns. |