Armenian-Israeli Relations and the Geopolitics of the Middle East
| Název práce v češtině: | Arménsko-izraelské vztahy a geopolitika na Středním východě |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | Armenian-Israeli Relations and the Geopolitics of the Middle East |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2023/2024 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra politologie (23-KP) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | Hana Kubátová, M.A., Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 19.12.2023 |
| Datum zadání: | 19.12.2023 |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| (Final Draft) MA Thesis Proposal -- Antonios Tashejian
Title: Understanding Armenian-Israeli relations in the context of geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Research Question: "How do geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East shape Israeli-Armenian relations?" Introduction This thesis seeks to contribute to the broader understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East (and South Caucasus), offering insights into the multifaceted relations between Israel and Armenia. It will have a specific focus on the diplomatic and strategic interactions between Israel and Armenia. The study will investigate the historical context of their relations, examining factors such as shared historical experiences, diplomatic ties, and geopolitical alignments. The research will delve into contemporary case study(-ies), exploring how regional and international dynamics, security concerns shape the relationship between Israel and Armenia, such as the Karabakh wars and Israel's role in it. This topic provides a comprehensive framework to explore various facets of the geopolitical landscape involving Israel and Armenia, especially after Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in its latest military action with obvious Israeli support. The thesis will be divided into six chapters. Aside from the introduction and the conclusion, chapter one focuses on the conceptual and theoretical framework and methodological framework, chapter two till four focus on South Caucasus regional security, Israel's role in the region and the impact global actors (US, UE) and regional actors (Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran) influence Armenia-Israel relations. Chapter five will focus on a specific case study, which is the Karabakh wars, particularly 2016, 2020 and 2023. Chapter six will delve into implications and recommendations for Armenia-Israel relations going forward. Armenians and Jews have fostered relations with one another for centuries since antiquity. As two of few groups who have faced extermination and thereafter established their independent states (1918 and 1948), their trajectories are indeed quite different. Both groups had to fight for their survival and the establishment of their independent states. The Soviet occupation and integration of Armenia into the USSR coincides with the struggles faced by Jews in establishing the State of Israel and then maintaining said state. As the Soviet Union crumbled, Armenia regained independence in 1991. The country struggled to to establish a functional prosperous state as it was hit with a post-independence economic crisis ensuing an exodus of millions of its work force and establishing a regime which was neither entirely free nor democratic. Armenia also went to war with neighbouring Azerbaijan over the former Nagorno-Karabakh Oblast which lasted until a ceasefire in 1994. During this time, Israel witnessed its economic boom becoming dubbed the start-up nation, having seen an influx of immigrants from the post-soviet space as well. Both Israel and Armenia were established by refugees in a region that did not want these states established. Armenia faced a blockade on its western and eastern borders by Turkey and Azerbaijan respectively, while Israel struck a peace deal with Egypt and Jordan yet is still in an official state of war with Lebanon and Syria, thereby having its northern and north eastern borders closed. Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, explains how he often saw Israel as an exemplary country that needs to be emulated. It wasn't until the velvet revolution in Armenia in 2018, that the Armenian government re-initiated closer links with Israel albeit to the disinterest of Israel given the latter's close economic, energy and security relations with Armenia's foe, Azerbaijan. Armenia too had to explain to its southern neighbor, Iran, with whom it has excellent relations as to why it seeks to establish direct diplomatic relations with its arch-nemesis, Israel. Israel only became more involved in the South Caucasus in 2016, when Avigdor Lieberman was the Minister of Defense. His party, Israel Beytenu, caters to the needs of "Russian-speaking" Jews in Israel and he initiated the sale of heavy weaponry to Azerbaijan, considering the latter a post-soviet Shi'a Muslim majority country that is at odds with Iran and from whose territory Israel could spy on and even use as a launching pad for attacks on Iran. Yet, Israeli society remains indifferent to their country's involvement in the South Caucasus. I would argue that both supporters of Azerbaijan, mostly Jewish emigres from the post-soviet space, and supporters of Armenia, who emphasize its democratic and liberal values, but also the shared trauma of surviving genocide, are of equal weight. From the prism of academia, both Jewish-Armenian (people-to-people) relations and Israel-Armenia relations have been understudied. The existing debate either focuses on comparative studies of trauma and genocide or exist in the form of journalistic articles with a US-foreign security perspective. My work will therefore fill the gap in academia as an independent analysis of both the needs of Armenia and Israel (independently) to then discuss ways through implications and recommendations of how these two small countries with parallels in their history can also foster relations beneficial for both. According to the realist school of international relations, the goal of a state is to preserve its existence -- to survive. Israel more than any other state, given its peculiar circumstances, seeks to maintain its existence for the safety of its people. Under the façade of liberalism, all states operate through realist endeavors. Israel has therefore chosen its state-interests of fostering relations with a oil and gas rich frenemy of Iran, Azerbaijan, and a growing regional power, Turkey. Both "historic" enemies of Armenia. I do not intend to dispute this fact. I do however emphasis on the bipolar world order that has been gradually emerging since Russia's aggression on Ukraine and Azerbaijan's aggression on Artsakh, whereby Armenia has shifted its foreign policy priorities more drastically towards the West, traditional allies of Israel, putting the country at odds with its supposed friends. Israel gambled with Turkey and the current stance of Erdogan's government shows that this gamble is not necessarily paying off. Israel is instead fostering closer ties with Greece, a traditional ally of Armenia. I argue in this thesis that it is smarter to invest in relations with a strong base, ie. potential strong relations between Armenia and Israel rooted in history and identity and the future prospects that Armenia is to offer through its closer ties to the West, it being dubbed the "Silicon Valley of the South Caucasus" by Forbes magazine, and not to forget that Armenia is on the course to signing peace deals with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, hopefully creating an atmosphere which would not need Israeli weapons for either side. Israel-Azerbaijan relations are transactional and therefore momentary. Israel (1) sells weapons to Azerbaijan and (2) buys its gas. They both share (3) an animosity of Iran. In the first instance, weapons sales will very likely be affected in the coming 5-10 years. Second, it would not need Azerbaijani gas as it has started drilling in its own waters for it and is on the verge of making peace with oil and gas rich countries. Third, the enmity between Israel and Iran is not one of hatred for the sake of hate. The woman, life, freedom movement in Iran has shown the weakness of the Islamic regime in Iran whose people are very fond of Israel out of spite for their vile government. That being said, Azerbaijan has a interests that infringe of Iran's territorial integrity, whereby any government, both Islamic-authoritarian or secular-democratic would find issue with. Similarly, Armenia is allies with Iran for both historic reasons and those of mutual interest. It is not dependent on what government is in place. Armenia would continue its close relationship with Iran in the event of a new government. The same cannot be said for either Azerbaijan or Israel. The former would continue on the same course of being frenemies while the latter would foster closer ties. Conceptual and Theoretical Framework Although, I do not dispute realism and its methods, I do approach it critically through Critical Geopolitics. It is realism with some elements of constructivism and liberalism. Realism might explain the reality in the relations between these two states today, but it does not give us a framework for the future. I rely on liberalism in its belief to create a prosperous and peaceful relationship between states as an ideal to aspire for. Otherwise, I use constructivism and issues pertaining to history and identity to better aid this liberal ideal. Critical geopolitics aims to reveal underlying power dynamics and the ideologies that shape them. It emphasizes the role of identity in geopolitics and explores, through discourse analysis, how discourse can construct and reinforce certain identities, whether national or international. It also examines geographic space and how said space can justify certain political decisions. Michel Foucault for example influenced critical geopolitics through his understanding of "power/knowledge" -- that certain knowledge legitimizes particular political actions and influences the production of knowledge. It also examines the role of popular culture and the media in shaping narratives in geopolitics particularly influenced by scholars such as Edward Saïd. Otherwise, it encourages the use of different perspectives in analyzing narratives by challenging the hegemony of traditional geopolitical discourse in IR. In the title of my thesis, I use the term "Middle East", that is because I advocate to the understanding that the "South Caucasus" is not a valid geographic term that necessarily can stand out on its own. This is particularly true for Armenia which geographically is on the eastern parts of the Armenian Highlands, which belongs to Anatolia. Armenia was grouped in the South Caucasus through Soviet policies which created this term. It was also a means to divide the Armenians of Armenia from the rest of the Armenian Highlands, now part of Turkey and subsequently the Armenian diaspora which the Soviet regime despised. That being said, to simplify matters, in certain contexts I employ the term "South Caucasus." Armenians however are a Middle Eastern people. As such, I also view Jews as an indigenous Middle Eastern group, native to the land of Israel, the same way Armenians are native to the Armenian Highlands. Methodological Framework I will answer the question "How do geopolitical dynamics int he Middle East shape Israeli-Armenian relations?" first, through a historical analysis which will be descriptive, then proceed to explain security dynamics and then implications and recommendations, which my hypotheses above have alluded to by looking at the case study of the Karabakh wars (2016, 2020 and 2023) from a comparative perspective. I will also myself interview experts, policymakers and scholars involved in the region and in these relations. The implications and recommendations section might also have elements from established frameworks of risk analysis. Otherwise, since actual academic studies are scarce, I will employ discourse analysis. Concerning data, I will also look into the weapons sales using the SIPRI database found online. Current State of Knowledge The scholarly debate is divided between those who see Armenia as an ally of Russia and Iran, and those who see it as a small landlocked free, democratic and liberal state trying to survive and foster closer ties with the West. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine war made the US and EU more interested in the South Caucasus, as the understanding of a "Russia's backyard" had been broken. Brenda Shaffer, an academic and political analyst but also accused of being an Azerbaijani lobbyist in DC by the OCCRP (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project). Otherwise it is mostly conservative think tanks (such as the Heritage Foundation) in the US who seek to show Armenia as a Russia- and Iran-ally. An article from 2007 on their website is entitled "Armenian Folly". Otherwise, this article from September 2020: "Armenia-Azerbaijan War Of 2022: What Should America Do?" The "debate" today is more-so presented as a DC-lobby war. I would argue both have strong arguments, but Armenian-Israeli relations are often talked in the shadows of US foreign policy. Eldad Ben Aharon's "Between Geopolitics and Identity Struggle: Why Israel Took Sides with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict" is 40 pages long and almost entirely about Israel and Azerbaijan through the NKR Conflict. Armenia-Israel relations take up half a chapter and that's the half-chapter I would like to expand in my thesis. So while scholars such as Shaffer not only explain the present through realism but seek to create future policies that seek to alienate Armenia and portray it as an unworthy partner, I seek to expand on the studies conducted by scholars such as Ben Aharon to show a more nuanced take on Israel's role in the South Caucasus and the benefits of a healthy Israel-Armenia relationship. It is also true that given everything said above, the scholarly debate has shifted given the many changes. If anything, my thesis would start a new debate concerning Israel-Armenia relations. (Updated) Outline Introduction 1000 words • Context and historical background • Objectives and scope Chapter One: Conceptual and Theoretical Framework 2000 words • Previous studies on the geopolitics of the Middle East and South Caucasus • Scholarly work on Israeli-Armenian relations • Geopolitical Theories (including Critical Geopolitics) Methodological Framework 1000 words • Introduce the research design • Methods used for data collection (historical analysis, interviews, case study-ies, discourse analysis) Chapter Two: Regional Security Landscape 5000 words • Examine the historical and contemporary security challenges in the South Caucasus region, with a focus on Armenia. • Analyze the impact of conflicts, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, on regional stability and Israel's response. Chapter Three: Israel's role in international relations 5000 words • Assess Israel's broader role in international security and its foreign policy objectives in the South Caucasus. • Explore Israeli diplomatic and security engagements in the region. Chapter Four: Impact of global and regional powers 5000 words • Explore the role of regional powers, such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran, and global powers such as the United States and the European Union in influencing Israeli-Armenian relations. • Assess how the geopolitical interests and actions of these regional actors impact the security environment. Chapter Five: Specific Case Study: War in Karabakh (2016, 2020, 2023) 5000 words • Analyze Armenian-Israeli relations through the prism of Armenia-Azerbaijan wars Chapter Six: Implications and Recommendations (post-2023) 5000 words • Policy Implications: The findings of the study may offer insights into potential policy recommendations for both Israel and Armenia in navigating regional complexities and enhancing security cooperation. Conclusion 1000 words • The research aimed to provide a nuanced understanding of the bilateral relationship between Israel and Armenia, with a focus on security and geopolitical considerations. • Concluding remarks on the future of Israeli-Armenian relations. Bibliography and references: Theoretical works: Anthony D. Smith, Ethno-symbolism and nationalism, Routledge, 2009 Anthony D. Smith, Nationalism and Modernism, Routledge, 1998 Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: reflections of the origins and spread of nationalism, Ballantine Books, 2016 Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy is What States Make of It: the Social Construction of Power Politics" in International Organization (46:2), pp. 396–399, 1992 John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W.W. Norton & Company, 2001 Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, University of California Press, 2001 S. Dalby and G. Ó Tuathail, eds., Rethinking Geopolitics, Routledge, 1998. G. Ó Tuathail, Critical Geopolitics: The Politics of Writing Global Space, University of Minnesota Press (Volume 6 in the Borderlines series), 1996. Armenian-Israeli/Jewish relations: Yair Auron, The banality of Indifference: Zionism and the Armenian Genocide, Rutgers University Press, 2001 Yair Auron, The Banality of Denial: Israel and the Armenian Genocide, Rutgers University Press, 2003 Eldad Ben Aharon, Between Geopolitics and Identity struggle: why Israel took sides with Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?, Peace research Institute Frankfurt, January 2023 Marc David Baer, Sultanic Saviors and Tolerant Turks: writing Ottoman Jewish History, denying the Armenian Genocide, Indiana University Press, 2020 "Israel among Armenia’s geopolitical concerns after Nagorno-Karabakh collapse", October 2, 2023 https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-among-armenias-geopolitical-concerns-after-nagorno-karabakh-collapse/ "Yerevan Synagogue Set on Fire in Antisemitic Attack by Armenian Militant Group" Nov 16, 2023. https://www.haaretz.com/jewish/2023-11-16/ty-article/.premium/yerevan-synagogue-set-on-fire-in-antisemitic-attack-by-armenian-militant-group/0000018b-d7ed-d423-affb-f7efb5d90000 Ara Daglian, Tracing the history of Armenians in Jerusalem, March 27, 2023 https://jewishstudies.washington.edu/israel-hebrew/history-armenians-in-jerusalem/ "Amid War In Israel, Jerusalem Armenians Enter Standoff Over Holy Land" Nov 20, 2023 https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-jerusalem-israel-land-dispute-intimidation/32692507.html Ara Daglian, Tracing the history of Armenians in Jerusalem, March 27, 2023 https://jewishstudies.washington.edu/israel-hebrew/history-armenians-in-jerusalem/ Middle East Geopolitics Amnon Aran, Israeli Foreign Policy since the End of the Cold War, Cambridge University Press, 2021 Rob Geist Pinfold and Joel Peters, The Limits of Israel’s Periphery Doctrine: Lessons from the Caucasus and Central Asia, in: Mediterranean Politics, 26(1): 25–49, 2019 Marta Furlan, Israeli-Iranian Relations: Past Friendship, Current Hostility, in: Israel Affairs, 28(2): 170–83, 2022 Orhan Gafarli, Russia’s Role in the Karabakh Conflict, in: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, M. H. Yavuz and M. Gunter (eds.). New York, NY: Routledge: 341–65, 2022 South Caucasus Geopolitics Laurence Broers, Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of a Rivalry, Edinburgh University Press, 2019 Razmik Panossian, The Past as Nation: Three Dimensions of Armenian Identity, in: Geopolitics, 7(2): 121–46, 2002 Razmik Panossian, The Armenians: from Kings and Priests to Merchants and Commissars, Hurst&co, 2006 Thomas De Waal, The Caucasus: an introduction, 2nd ed, Oxford University Press, 2018 |