The Indo-China pivot to Asia: an analytical study of significance of the South China Sea through competition among trade blocs.
| Název práce v češtině: | Indo-čínský vstup do Asie: Analytická studie o významu Jihočínského moře v soutěži mezi obchodními bloky. |
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| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The Indo-China pivot to Asia: an analytical study of significance of the South China Sea through competition among trade blocs. |
| Klíčová slova: | Indie. Čína. Jihočínské moře. Geopolitika |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | India. China. South-China See. Geopolitics. |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2019/2020 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra politologie (23-KP) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | PhDr. Mgr. et Mgr. Jakub Landovský, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 30.07.2020 |
| Datum zadání: | 30.07.2020 |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| According to the IEPS and FSV standards. |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| ADB (2011) Asia’s Free Trade Agreements: How is Business Responding? Masahiro Kawai & Ganeshan Wignaraja (eds.). [Online]. Cheltenham, UK & Northampton, MA, USA, A Joint Publication of the Asian Development Bank and the ADB Institute with Edward Elgar Publishing. Available from: www.e-elgar.com.
Kaplan, R.D. (2014) Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific. New York, Random House. Kawai, M. & Wignaraja, G. (2010) ADB Economics Working Paper Series Asian FTAs : Trends Prospects ,. [Online] (226), 46. Available from: www.adb.org/economics. Lee, P. (2016) China Not Leaving the ‘South China Sea’. Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. [Online] 14 (6). Available from: http://apjjf.org/2016/06/Lee.html. Panda, J.P. (2014) Factoring the RCEP and the TPP: China, India and the Politics of Regional Integration. Strategic Analysis. [Online] 38 (1), 49–67. Available from: doi:10.1080/09700161.2014.863462. Urata, S. (2008) An ASEAN+6 Economic Partnership: Significance and Tasks. Asia Research Report 2007. [Online]. (February). Available from: https://www.jcer.or.jp/eng/pdf/asia07.pdf. Ye, M. (2015) China and Competing Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: TPP, RCEP, and the New Silk Road. Asian Security. [Online] 11 (3), 206–224. Available from: doi:10.1080/14799855.2015.1109509. |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| Topic Characteristics:
The purpose of this research proposal is to determine Southeast Asia’s South China Sea which is not only important for maritime trade but also rich in hydrocarbons. These factors make Southeast Asia one of the most contested regions in the world, where Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, and Middle-East nations participate in FTAs to gain economic and geopolitical advantages from the region. An article published in Business Insider 2015, from the reference of Asia’s Cauldron by Robert D Kaplan, the South China Sea yields oil reserves of 130 billion barrels by the Chinese calculations, whereas China has only invested US$ 20 billion in the South China Sea. Arguably, these oil reserve estimates have raised some serious concerns, since they are more than the oil reserves in any other area across the globe, excluding Saudi Arabia. However, some credible sources estimate only 7 billion barrels of oil reserves and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Kaplan, 2015). In reference to the FTAs, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), led by the United States (US), negotiations concluded in 2015, of which China is not a member, and other trade blocs such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of which the US is not a member, and Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) are still to be negotiated or are being drafted. Working hypotheses: The objective of this research proposal to identify why the sea-route of Southeast Asia is vital to trade in Asia-Pacific, as it gives the definitive answer provided in the background literature. However, this leads to the next question: How will these trade blocs or initiatives intersect or facilitate each other? A follow-up question is: What will be the implications for the future FTAs and existing trade policies in the South China Sea region? The implications are that future FTAs will encourage more competition in the region for maritime sovereignty, freedom of navigation, issues regarding disputed islands. In contrast, as mentioned above, global maritime transit in the South China Sea is US$ 5 trillion. Any wrong move will further lead to the negotiation table, as well as it will disrupt global maritime trade. In addition, this research proposal will also explore and investigate to what extent through Maritime Silk Route, China might aim to revive its Bamboo Network in Southeast Asia through Chinese investments where regional and trans-regional trade blocs compete in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. Methodology: In the methodology section, the triangulation method is the most likely approach in validating the findings of this research study. However, using quantitative and qualitative strategies as an individual approach and incorporating those with the current trade and foreign policy approaches in Southeast Asia will help in the testing of the hypothesis and ascertain trade implications. According to Cooper and Schindler (2014), the simultaneous use of the quantitative approach and the qualitative approach helps to provide validation for the findings. Qualitative Method The qualitative method is a research method concerned with the subjective assessment of attitudes, opinions, and behavior (Kothari, 2004). Cooper and Schindler (2014), describe it as an “array of interpretive techniques which seek to describe, decode, translate, and otherwise come to terms with the meaning, not the frequency, of certain more or less naturally occurring phenomena in the social world” (p.144). The approach in the research study is to observe, interpret, and identify the critical possibilities constitute with the South China Sea concerning the FTA and the sovereignty issues. Also, looking from the notable published journals and understanding the action plan of the respective major powers which are involved with both economic and geopolitical interests. Quantitative Method In the quantitative method, the secondary data will be used, which is consistently published by government and non-government organizations, such as International Monetary Fund, World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and trade blocs ASEAN and TPP. Moreover, the data will be analyzed utilizing the IBM SPSS statistics tool, and corroborated with the expert interviews, as well as with the hypothesis. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Contesting Southeast Asia and FTA 1. TPP Trade ambitions 2. RCEP Trade ambitions 3. Belt and Road Initiative Trade ambitions 3. China’s Maritime “Rejuvenation Strategy 1. Maritime Trade Policy 4. International Financial Institutions Maritime Interests 1. Asian Development Bank Maritime Interests 2. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 3. The New Development Bank (BRICS bank) 5. Why is the ASEAN vitally crucial in this maritime trade from Asia to the 6. Pacific? 7. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation to Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific 8. to Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor 9. Trading Allies 10. Conclusion 11. Bibliography 12. Appendices |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| Topic Characteristics:
The purpose of this research proposal is to determine Southeast Asia’s South China Sea which is not only important for maritime trade but also rich in hydrocarbons. These factors make Southeast Asia one of the most contested regions in the world, where Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, and Middle-East nations participate in FTAs to gain economic and geopolitical advantages from the region. An article published in Business Insider 2015, from the reference of Asia’s Cauldron by Robert D Kaplan, the South China Sea yields oil reserves of 130 billion barrels by the Chinese calculations, whereas China has only invested US$ 20 billion in the South China Sea. Arguably, these oil reserve estimates have raised some serious concerns, since they are more than the oil reserves in any other area across the globe, excluding Saudi Arabia. However, some credible sources estimate only 7 billion barrels of oil reserves and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (Kaplan, 2015). In reference to the FTAs, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), led by the United States (US), negotiations concluded in 2015, of which China is not a member, and other trade blocs such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of which the US is not a member, and Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) are still to be negotiated or are being drafted. Working hypotheses: The objective of this research proposal to identify why the sea-route of Southeast Asia is vital to trade in Asia-Pacific, as it gives the definitive answer provided in the background literature. However, this leads to the next question: How will these trade blocs or initiatives intersect or facilitate each other? A follow-up question is: What will be the implications for the future FTAs and existing trade policies in the South China Sea region? The implications are that future FTAs will encourage more competition in the region for maritime sovereignty, freedom of navigation, issues regarding disputed islands. In contrast, as mentioned above, global maritime transit in the South China Sea is US$ 5 trillion. Any wrong move will further lead to the negotiation table, as well as it will disrupt global maritime trade. In addition, this research proposal will also explore and investigate to what extent through Maritime Silk Route, China might aim to revive its Bamboo Network in Southeast Asia through Chinese investments where regional and trans-regional trade blocs compete in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. Methodology: In the methodology section, the triangulation method is the most likely approach in validating the findings of this research study. However, using quantitative and qualitative strategies as an individual approach and incorporating those with the current trade and foreign policy approaches in Southeast Asia will help in the testing of the hypothesis and ascertain trade implications. According to Cooper and Schindler (2014), the simultaneous use of the quantitative approach and the qualitative approach helps to provide validation for the findings. Qualitative Method The qualitative method is a research method concerned with the subjective assessment of attitudes, opinions, and behavior (Kothari, 2004). Cooper and Schindler (2014), describe it as an “array of interpretive techniques which seek to describe, decode, translate, and otherwise come to terms with the meaning, not the frequency, of certain more or less naturally occurring phenomena in the social world” (p.144). The approach in the research study is to observe, interpret, and identify the critical possibilities constitute with the South China Sea concerning the FTA and the sovereignty issues. Also, looking from the notable published journals and understanding the action plan of the respective major powers which are involved with both economic and geopolitical interests. Quantitative Method In the quantitative method, the secondary data will be used, which is consistently published by government and non-government organizations, such as International Monetary Fund, World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and trade blocs ASEAN and TPP. Moreover, the data will be analyzed utilizing the IBM SPSS statistics tool, and corroborated with the expert interviews, as well as with the hypothesis. Outline: 1. Introduction 2. Contesting Southeast Asia and FTA 1. TPP Trade ambitions 2. RCEP Trade ambitions 3. Belt and Road Initiative Trade ambitions 3. China’s Maritime “Rejuvenation Strategy 1. Maritime Trade Policy 4. International Financial Institutions Maritime Interests 1. Asian Development Bank Maritime Interests 2. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 3. The New Development Bank (BRICS bank) 5. Why is the ASEAN vitally crucial in this maritime trade from Asia to the 6. Pacific? 7. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation to Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific 8. to Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor 9. Trading Allies 10. Conclusion 11. Bibliography 12. Appendices |