Ruská informační válka v pobaltských státech a její dopady na společnost
Název práce v češtině: | Ruská informační válka v pobaltských státech a její dopady na společnost |
---|---|
Název v anglickém jazyce: | Russian information warfare in the Baltic states and its impact on the society |
Klíčová slova: | Informační válka, Ruská federace, pobaltské státy, proruský narativ, obsahová analýza, diskurzivní analýza, Baltnews, Sputnik News |
Klíčová slova anglicky: | Information warfare, Russian Federation, Baltic states, pro-Russian narrative, content analysis, discourse analysis, Baltnews, Sputnik News |
Akademický rok vypsání: | 2019/2020 |
Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
Jazyk práce: | čeština |
Ústav: | Katedra mezinárodních vztahů (23-KMV) |
Vedoucí / školitel: | Mgr. Martin Laryš, Ph.D. |
Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
Datum přihlášení: | 22.06.2020 |
Datum zadání: | 22.06.2020 |
Datum a čas obhajoby: | 24.06.2021 08:00 |
Místo konání obhajoby: | Pekařská 16, JPEK314, 314, Malá učebna, 3.patro |
Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 04.05.2021 |
Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 24.06.2021 |
Oponenti: | doc. PhDr. Vít Střítecký, M.Phil., Ph.D. |
Kontrola URKUND: |
Seznam odborné literatury |
Knižní zdroje
Berg, Eiki a Ehin, Piret. Identity and Foreign Policy: Baltic-Russian Relations and European Integration (Londýn: Routledge, 2009): 1–216, https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/identity-foreign-policy-eiki-berg-piret-ehin/e/10.4324/9781315587745 Cepurītis, Māris; Juurvee, Ivo; Keišs, Austris; Marnot, Diana; Rodríguez, Belén Carrasco a Ruston, Scott. Russia´s Footprint in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment 2019/2020 (Riga: NATO Strategic Communication Centre of Excelence, 2020): 1–80, https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/russias-footprint-in-the-nordic-baltic-information-environment-20192020/24 Čižík, Tomáš; Schmidt-Felzmann, Anke; Gvineria, Shota; Pashkov, Mykhailo a Šukytè Dovilè. Information Warfare – New Security Challenge for Europe (Bratislava: Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs, 2017): 1–140, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322695565_Information_Warfare_-_New_Security_Challenge_for_Europe Juurvee, Ivo; Sazonov, Vladimir; Parppei, Kati; Engizers, Edgars; Palasz, Ieva a Zawadzka, Malgorzata. Falsification of History as a Tool of Influence (Riga: NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence, 2020): 1–93, https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/falsification-of-history-as-a-tool-of-influence/16 Libicki, Martin C. What Is Information Warfare? (Washington DC: Center for Advanced Concepts and Technology Institute for National Strateigc Studies, 1995): 1–110, https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a367662.pdf Rislakki, Jukka. The Case for Latvia. Disinformation Campaigns Against a Small Nation (Amsterdam – New York: Rodopi, 2008): 1–295, https://books.google.cz/books?id=yXANj6Y_7goC&printsec=frontcover&hl=cs&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false Rodríguez, Belén Carrasco. „Information laundering in the Nordic-Baltic region,“ (Riga: NATO Strategic Communication Centre of Excellence, 2020): 1–176, https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/information-laundering-in-the-nordic-baltic-region/26 Schreier, Margrit. Qualitative Content Analysis in Practice, (London: Sage, 2012): 1–272, https://books.google.cz/books/about/Qualitative_Content_Analysis_in_Practice.html?id=NEOitAEACAAJ&redir_esc=y Spruds, Andris; Rožukalne, Anda; Sedlenieks, Klavs; Daugulis, Martins; Potjomkina, Diana a Tölgyesi Beatrix. Internet Trolling as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare: The Case of Latvia (Riga: NATO Strategic Communication Centre of Excellence, 2016): 1–106, https://issuu.com/natostratcomcoe/docs/full_report_trolling_25012016 Waltz, Edward. Information Warfare Principles and Operations (Norwood: Artech House Publishers, 1998): 1–414, https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Information-Warfare-Principles-and-Operations-Waltz/1ac4c3e9d507f37f42725ff94f13999143ec841d Akademické články Aro, Jessika. „The cyberspace war: propaganda and trolling as warfare tools,“ European View 15 (2016): 121–132, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12290-016-0395-5 Baumann, Mario. „'Propaganda Fights' and 'Disinformation Campaigns': the discourse on information warfare in Russian-West relations,“ Contemporary Politics 26, č. 3 (2020): 288–307, https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2020.1728612 Best, Marina. „The Ethnic Russian Minority: A Problematic Issue in Baltic States,“ Germanic and Slavic Studies in Review 2, č.1 (2013): 33–41, https://journals.uvic.ca/index.php/verges/article/download/11634/3698/0 Bērziņa, Ieva. „Political Trust and Russian Media in Latvia,“ Journal on Baltic Security 4, č. 2 (2018): 1–8, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330933464_Political_Trust_and_Russian_Media_in_Latvia Bílková, Veronika; Kiener, Regina; Velaers, Jan; Vermeulen, Ben a Hofmann, Rainer. „On the recent amendments to the legislation education in minority languages,“ Venice Commission, 18. 7. 2020, https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.aspx?pdffile=CDL-AD(2020)012-e Bladaitè, Neringa a Šešelgytè, Margarita. „Building a Multiple 'Security Shelter' in the Baltic States after EU and NATO Accession,“ Europe-Asia Studies 72, č. 6 (2020): 1010–1032, https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1785396 Čekinov, Sergej a Bogdanov, Sergej. „The Nature and Content of a New-Generation War,“ Military Thought 4 (2013): 12–23, https://www.usni.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Chekinov-Bogdanov%20Miltary%20Thought%202013.pdf Čižík, Tomáš. „Baltic States – How to React to 'New Warfare' in the Context of the Article V?“ Slovak Journal of Political Sciences 17, č. 2 (2017): 184–201, http://archive.sciendo.com/SJPS/sjps.2017.17.issue-2/sjps-2017-0008/sjps-2017-0008.pdf Čižovová, Olga. „Disinformation Resilience Index in Central and Eastern Europe,“ Prism Ukraine, 2018, http://prismua.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/DRI_CEE_2018.pdf Dvořáková, Ilona. „Obsahová analýza/formální obsahová analýza/kvantitativní obsahová analýza,“ Antropoweb.cz (2010): 95–100, http://www.antropoweb.cz/media/webzin/webzin_2_2010/Dvorakova__I-2-2010.pdf Elo, Satu; Kääriäinen, Maria; Kanste, Outi; Pölkki, Tarja; Urtainen, Kati a Kyngäs, Helvi. „Qualitative Content Analysis: A Focus on Trustworthiness,“ SAGE Open (2014): 1–10, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244014522633 Erlingsson, Christen a Brysiewicz, Petra. „A hands-on guide to doing content analysis,“ African Journal of Emergency Medicine 7 (2017): 93–99, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211419X17300423 Ekmanis, Indra. „Why Isn´t Latvia the 'Next' Crimea? Reconsidering Ethnic Integration,“ Orbis 64, č. 3 (2020): 489–450, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7329285/ Franke, Ulrik. „War by non-military means: Understanding Russian information warfare,“ Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut [Švédská obranná výzkumná agentura], (2015): 1–80, https://dataspace.princeton.edu/handle/88435/dsp019c67wq22q Flanagan, Stephen J.; Osburg, Jan; Binnedijk, Anika; Kepe, Marta a Radin, Andrew. „Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance“, RAND Corporation (2019): 1–36, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2779.html Gotkowska, Justyna a Szymański, Piotr. „Russia and the security in the Baltic Sea region – Some recommendations for policy-makers,“ Baltic Sea Region Policy Briefing, (2017): 1–10, http://www.centrumbalticum.org/files/2157/BSR_Policy_Briefing_1_2017.pdf Halas, Matúš. „Proving a negative: why deterrence does not work in the Baltics,“ European Security 28, č. 4 (2019): 431–448, https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2019.1637855 Hiio, Toomas a Luts, Kristjan. „Estonian Units in the Wehrmacht, SS and Police System, as well as the Waffen-SS, During the World War II,“ Estonian Yearbook of Military History 1 (2011): 266–273, http://publications.tlu.ee/index.php/eymh/issue/view/58 Hossová, Monika. „Fake News and Disinformation: Phenomenons of Post-Factual Society,“ Media Literacy and Academic Research 1, č. 2 (2018): 27–35, http://cejsh.icm.edu.pl/cejsh/element/bwmeta1.element.cejsh-b2564cd3-cc84-491c-b99c-e46d746ae0fa Chivvis, Christopher S. „Understanding Russian Hybrid Warfare And What Can Be Done About It,“ RAND Corporation (2017): 1–10, https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT468.html Järve, Priit a Polesčuk, Vadim. „Report on Citizenship Law: Estonia,“ European University Institute (2019): 1–23 https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/65466/RSCAS_GLOBALCIT_CR_2019_7.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y Jensen, Donald N. a Doran, Peter B. „Chaos as a Strategy: Putin´s 'Promethean' Gamble,“ Center for European Policy Analysis, 2018, https://cepa.org/cepa_files/2018-CEPA-report-Chaos_as_a_Strategy.pdf Jõessar, Andres a Kõuts-Klemm, Ragne. „Is The Role of Public Service Media in Estonia Changing?“ Baltic Screen Media Review 7, č. 1 (2020): 97–116, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340412230_Is_the_Role_of_Public_Service_Media_in_Estonia_Changing/link/5e8733a092851c2f527849a2/download Kaprāns, Mārtiņš a Mieriņa, Inta. „Ideological Polarization in Baltic Societies: A Cross-National Survey Report,“ Latvijas Universitātes Filozofijas un Socioloģijas Institūts [Institut filozofie a sociologie Lotyšské univerzity] (2019): 1–88, http://fsi.lu.lv/userfiles/file/2019_ideological_polarization_report.pdf Khudoley, Konstantin. „The Baltic Sea region and increasing international tension,“ Baltic Region 1, č. 8: 4–16, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301741862_The_Baltic_Sea_region_and_increasing_international_tension Kivirähk, Juhan. „Integrating Estonia´s Russian-Speaking Population: Findings of National Defense Opinion Surveys,“ International Centre for Defence and Security (2014): 1–29, https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2014/Juhan_Kivirahk_-_Integrating_Estonias_Russian-Speaking_Population.pdf Kivirähk, Juhan. „Public Opinion and National Defence – October 2015“ Turu-uuringute AS (2015): 1–64, https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/elfinder/article_files/public_opinion_and_national_defence_2015_october.pdf Kivirähk, Juhan. „Public Opinion and National Defence, Turu-uuringute AS (2018): 1–74, https://www.kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/elfinder/article_files/public_opinion_and_national_defence_2018_march_0.pdf Kļava, Gunta; Balodis, Pauls; Baltiņš, MĀris; Ernštreits, Valts; Liepa, Dite; Motivāne, Kristīne; Muhka, Inese; Oga, Jānis; Papule, Evije; Valdmanis, Jānis a Vulāne, Anna. „Language Situation in Latvia: 2004–2010 – Research summary,“ Latvian Language Agency 2012: 1–67, https://valoda.lv/en/wp-content/uploads/monitorings%20eng.pdf Kondan, Silviu a Sahajpal, Mridvika. „Integration Policy and Outcomes for the Russian-Speaking Minority in Estonia,“ Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the EU (2017): 103–120, https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1127&context=urceu Kuczyńska-Zonik, Aleksandra. „Russian propaganda: methods of influence in the Baltic States,“ Institute of East-Central Europe 14, č. 2 (2016): 43–59, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320709581_Russian_propaganda_methods_of_influence_in_the_Baltic_States Lanoszka, Alexander. „Russian hybrid warfare and extended deterrence in eastern Europe,“ International Affairs 92, č. 1 (2016): 175–195, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12509 Murinska, Sandra, Aleksandrova, Olena a Dodonov, Roman. „Information warfare: future challenges of Latvia and Ukraine“, Skhid 5, č. 157 (2018): 66–72, https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2018.5(157).148661 Pomerantsev, Peter. „Authoritarianism Goes Global (II): The Kremlin´s Information War,“ Journal of Democracy 26, č. 4 (2015): 40–50, https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0074 Pomerantsev Peter a Weiss, Michael. „The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money,“ Insitute of Modern Russia (2014): 1–43, https://www.stratcomcoe.org/peter-pomerantsev-michael-weiss-menace-unreality-how-kremlin-weaponizes-information-culture-and Pleps, Jānis. „The Continuity of the Constitutions: The Examples of the Baltic States and Georgia,“ Wroclaw Review of Law 6, č. 2 (2016): 29–44, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324863089_The_Continuity_of_the_Constitutions_The_Examples_of_the_Baltic_States_and_Georgia Ploom, Illimar, Sliwa, Zdzislaw a Veebel, Viljar. „The NATO 'Defender 2020' exercise in the Baltic States: Will measured escalation lead to credible deterrence or provoke an escalation?“ Comparative Strategy 39, č. 4 (2020): 368–384, https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2020.1772626 Radin, Andrew. „Hybrid Warfare in The Baltics – Threats and Potential Responses“, RAND Corporation (2017): 1–48, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1577.html Richey, Mason. „Contemporary Russian revisionism: understanding the Kremlin´s hybrid warfare and the strategic and tactical deployment of disinformation,“ Asia Europe Journal 16 (2018): 101–113, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0482-5 Rozenvalds, Juris. „Integration in Latvia: Flows and Ebbs in National and European Context,“ CBU International Conference Proceedings 4 (2016): 403–407, https://ojs.journals.cz/index.php/CBUIC/article/view/787 Satter, David. „The Last Gasp of Empire: Russia´s Attempts to Control the Media in the Former Soviet Republics,“ Center for International Media Assistance, (2014): 1–38, https://www.cima.ned.org/publication/the_last_gasp_of_empire__russia_s_attempts_to_control_the_media_in_the_former_soviet_republics/ Svencs, Edmunds. „The Latvian legion (1943–1945) and its role in Latvia´s history“, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College (2013): 1–137, https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589943.pdf Szafranski, Richard. „A Theory of Information Warfare – Preparing For 2020,“ Airpower Journal (1995), http://www.iwar.org.uk/iwar/resources/airchronicles/szfran.htm Taddeo, Mariarosaria. „Information Warfare: A Philosophical Perspective“, Philosophy & Technology 25 (2012): 105–120, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-011-0040-9 Thornton, Rod. „The Changing Nature of Modern Warfare,“ The RUSI Journal 160, č. 4 (2015): 40–48, https://doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2015.1079047 Thornton, Rod a Karagiannis, Manos. „The Russian Threat to the Baltic States: The Problems of Shaping Local Defense Mechanisms,“ The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 29, č. 3 (2016): 331–351, https://doi.org/10.1080/13518046.2016.1200359 Vasu, Norman; Ang, Benjamin; Anne-Teo, Terri; Jayakumar, Shashi; Faizal, Muhammad a Ahuja Juhi. „Fake News: National Security in the Post-truth Era,“ Nanyang Technological University (2018): 1–36, https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PR180313_Fake-News_WEB.pdf Vašát, Petr. „Kritická diskurzivní analýza: sociální konstruktivismus v praxi,“ Antropoweb.cz Únor-Březen (2008): 101–112, http://www.antropoweb.cz/media/webzin/webzin_2-3_2008/8_KRITICKA_DISKURSIVNI_ANALYZA_SOCIAL.pdf Veebel, Viljar. „Why it would be strategically rational for Russia to escalate in Kaliningrad and Suwalki corridor?“ Comparative Strategy 38, č.3 (2019): 182–197, https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2019.1606659 Veebel, Viljar a Illimar Ploom, Illimar. „Are the Baltic States and NATO on the right path in deterring Russia in the Baltic?“ Defense & Security Analysis 35, č. 4 (2019): 406–422, https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2019.1675947 Wither, James K. „Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare,“ Connections 15, č. 2 (2016): 73–87, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26326441 Winnerstig, Mike; Persson, Gudrun; Bulakh, Anna; Tupay, Julian; Kaas, Karel; Tuohy, Emmet; Visnapuu, Kristiina; Kivirähk, Juhan; Kudors, Andis a Maliukevičius, Nerijus. „Tools of Destabilization. Russian Soft Power and Non-Military Influence in the Baltic States,“ Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut [Švédská obranná výzkumná agentura] (2014): 1–146, http://appc.lv/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/FOI_Non_military.pdf |
Předběžná náplň práce |
Tato diplomová práce analyzuje fenomén ruské informační války cílené na tři pobaltské státy – Litvu, Lotyšsko a Estonsko. V pěti kapitolách práce nejprve teoreticky rozebírá fenomén informační války, jeho specifické prvky a výhody, kvůli kterým ji používá Ruská federace používá, a následně přibližuje konceptuální předpoklady a podmínky k vedení informační války Ruskou federací právě v pobaltském regionu. Informační válka je v tomto ohledu chápána jako psychologický nátlak na populaci v pobaltských státech. To znamená, že jde o jeden z nástrojů zahraniční politiky Kremlu k prosazování jeho zájmů a vlivu, protože iniciátorem těchto informačních kampaní jsou ruská státní média, případně jejich zástupná média, která prosazují proruskou rétoriku. V empirické části se práce na základě konceptuálně stanovených faktorů a konkrétních událostí souvisejících s nimi zabývá diskursy a narativy šířenými v ruských či proruských médiích, které ve všech třech pobaltských zemích působí. Konkrétněji, analýza se zabývá obsahem těchto narativů, jejich rétorikou, specifickými vlastnostmi, kontextem a možnými dopady na společnost v pobaltských státech. Cílem této práce je tak pomocí obsahové analýzy zevrubně zanalyzovat význam a kontext jednotlivých narativů, stejně jako jejich možné cíle a dopady na společnost v pobaltských státech. Obojí souvisí právě se stanovenými faktory, které ovlivňují vzájemné vztahy mezi Ruskem a třemi pobaltskými republikami, ale zároveň také představují výhodné podmínky pro aplikaci (dez)informačních kampaní a proruských narativů, které prosazují vliv a zahraniční zájmy Ruské federace. Mezi hlavní faktory určující vztah mezi zeměmi a jejich podmínky patří: geografická blízkost a sdílení společné hranice mezi ruským územím a pobaltskými zeměmi; dlouholetá společná historie, především tedy během existence pobaltských států pod sovětskou nadvládou; početná menšina etnických Rusů a dalších ruskojazyčných národů, tedy i hojně rozšířená znalost ruštiny; a členství pobaltských v západních mezinárodních organizacích, zejména v Evropské Unii a Severoatlantické alianci. Na základě těchto faktorů byly ustanoveny tři kategorie – etnicko-jazyková a kulturní, historická a politicko-bezpečnostní – v jejichž rámci na základě obsahové analýzy jednotlivých narativů byly zkoumány konkrétní články, cílící na publikum v pobaltských státech, zejména to menšinové ruskojazyčné. Právě proto pak bude vyhodnocen na základě jednotlivých faktorů možný dopad ruské informační války na celkovou situaci v pobaltské společnosti. |
Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
This diploma thesis analyses the phenomenon of the Russian information warfare targeting the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In five chapters the thesis initially theoretically examines phenomenon of the information warfare itself, specifically its typical components and advantages because of which the Russian Federation uses it. After that, the thesis estimates conceptual preconditions and incentives in the Baltic region due to which Russia implements the information warfare specifically in this region. The information warfare in this sense is understood as the psychological pressure onto the society of Baltics, hence, as one of the tools to enforce the interests and goals of the Kremlin´s official foreign policy, because the initiators of such information campaigns are the Russian state media or their proxies. Third, in the empirical part, based the conceptually determined factors and particular events related to them, thesis thoroughly deals with discourses and narratives spread through the Russian and pro-Russian media operating in the Baltic states. More specifically, the analysis conducts research of the content of these narratives, their rhetoric, specific features, context and possible impacts onto the society in the Baltics. The goal of this thesis is to analyse thoroughly through the content analysis meaning and context of the specific narratives as well as their possible intentions and consequences. Both of those aspects are related to the factors, which are influencing the relations between Russia and all three Baltic republics. At the same time, those factors present advantageous conditions due to the spread of disinformation campaigns and pro-Russian narratives, which enforce the influence and foreign-policy interests of Russian Federation. Among the main such factors, determining both the mutual relations as well as its conditions are: geographical proximity and a shared mutual border between Russia and three Baltic states; long-year common history, especially that one in the second half of 20th century under the Soviet rule; the numerous minority of ethnic Russians as well as other Russian-speaking ethnics and widespread use of Russian language; and membership of Baltics in the international organization, especially EU and NATO. Based on these factors there have been established three categories – ethno-linguistic and cultural, historical and political-security – within which the pro-Russian narratives in the media articles targeting the Russian-speaking minorities have been measured by the content analysis. Because of that, in the end of the thesis there would be an evaluation of possible impact of Russian information warfare onto the society in the Baltics. |