Demise and Disintegration of Nationalist Terrorist Groups

• Název práce v češtině: Zánik a dezintegrace nacionalistických teroristických skupin
• Název v anglickém jazyce: Demise and Disintegration of Nationalist Terrorist Groups
• Klíčová slova: Nacionalismus, Separatismus, Terorismus, Severní Irsko, Baskicko, Teroristické organizace
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Nationalism, Separatism, Terrorism, Northern Ireland, Basque, Terrorist Organizations
• Akademický rok vypsání: 2018/2019
• Typ práce: diplomová práce
• Jazyk práce: angličtina
• Ústav: Katedra bezpečnostních studií (23-KBS)
• Vedoucí / školitel: prof. Mgr. Oldřich Bureš, Ph.D., M.A.
• Řešitel: skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem
• Datum přihlášení: 19.09.2019
• Datum zadání: 07.10.2019
• Datum a čas obhajoby: 25.06.2020 09:00
• Místo konání obhajoby: Jinonice - U Kříže 8, Praha 5, J4019, Jinonice - místn. č. 4019
• Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: 19.05.2020
• Datum proběhlé obhajoby: 25.06.2020
• Oponenti: Mgr. Markéta Kocmanová

Zásady pro vypracování

Introduction to the topic
Through the 20th century, many terrorist organizations have operated all over the world. They had, to some extent, remarkable influence on the policies of the states and international organizations. However, majority of them did not endure for long time. Regarding the impact of the anti-colonial wave, nationalist groups were one of the most plentiful type of terrorist organizations. But similarly to the other groups, their focus was merely disposable, and they disseminated relatively quickly. However, there have been remarkable exceptions and some of the groups endured for decades.
This thesis will focus on the demise and disintegration of nationalist terrorist groups. The aim is to analyse ongoing processes within these organizations and identify participation on both inner processes inside the group and governmental counter-terrorist policy on the disintegration of the group. Findings from this thesis should provide recommendations towards targeting of counter-terrorism policy by constructing a general pattern of actions. As examples of this two-case study, IRA and ETA were chosen, because of their long and remarkable history through the 20th century and since their activity was successfully ceased by reaching an agreement with government and declaration of ceasefire. This thesis will focus on the events and context of occurrences leading to the demise of these organizations.

Research target
This thesis will put an emphasis on the process of disintegration considering both possible approaches towards the existence of terrorist groups – instrumental and organizational. Each approach provides a specific contribution towards the field of terrorism studies. Whereas the instrumental approach sees terrorism as an instrument for obtaining political goals, when insufficient obtaining of the organization’s goals leads towards the disintegration of the group, the organizational approach employs the structure of organization, which is similar to every existing organization – each organization works through conflicts of interests, when personal gains of the members influence the behaviour of the organization even more than political objectives.
Regarding to the fact, that various types of terrorist organizations have various periods of endurance – considering different factors that will be described further – nationalist groups were chosen as a suitable object of this research. Nationalist groups have also one significant advantage for similar research, regarding their ability to transform into nationalist political party and thus preserve their participation in the political process.
Serving as one of the most obvious examples of a terrorist groups, that has already disintegrated, Irish Republican Army (IRA) and Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) were chosen as cases for this study. The aim is to demonstrate the factors necessary to eliminate terrorist activities including both inner and outer factors e.g. popular support, counter-terrorist activities of the government, financial and human resources of the organization, mechanisms of internal communication etc.
The thesis will be a two-case study with IRA and ETA studied separately while focusing on the same phenomena. Since both organizations have successfully disintegrated, while their agenda is still advocated by several political organizations, all phenomena shall be austerely observed using these two examples. Both cases should provide an evaluation for the general criteria of disintegration of terrorist groups.

Seznam odborné literatury

Literature review
The phenomenon of development and disintegration of terrorist groups has been examined recently with means of quantitative research. Using statistical methods, scholars such as Clauset and Gleditsch or Gaibulloev and Sandler used statistical methods to research relations between the frequency of terrorist acts, resources of the organizations, number of the basis and the development and dynamics of terrorist groups. Their findings can be used to determine factors necessary for survival of terrorist organizations.
Gaibulloev and Sandler claim that survival of terrorist organization depends on number of home basis, overall size of the organization, region of their activities and involvement of transnational members. They also claim, that religious terrorist organizations have better chances to survive than far-right, far-left and nationalist organizations. They, however, do not provide much implications for counterterrorism policies in order to force the organization to demise.
In their another article, together with Sandler and Gaibulloev submit three possible ways of demise of terrorist organization – disintegration from within (splintering from internal factors), defeat by force (military or political) or joining the political process (either by transformation to political party or victory of the group). Regarding this diversion, they claim that various types of groups tend to disintegrate in characteristic way – thus nationalist terrorist group is most likely to end by entering the process, but when their goals are not too broad.
Chenoweth and et al. in the article What makes terrorists tick evaluate existing claims about development of terrorist groups, that have been developed in accordance to organizational model and rational choice theory. Their critique should contribute to the research with better understanding of terrorist behaviour.
Daxecker and Hess focus on the influence of coercive means of state. They consider the role of state apparatus on the demise of terrorist groups, claiming that repression works better in authoritarian regimes rather than in democracies for producing backlash in the system and enhancing the lifespan of the terrorist groups.
However most of presented sources operate with quantitative methods and do not fully cover the area of nationalist terrorism of 20th century. They rather focus on general theory of terrorist organizations. Therefore, sources focusing on the two selected cases shall be used in the thesis. Murua in his thesis about demise of ETA provides narratives from both media and engaged actors and provides a complex overview of the situation at the end of existence of ETA. On the other hand Anthony Richards in the article Terrorist Groups and Political Fronts: The IRA, Sinn Fein, the Peace Process and Democracy describes the splintering of IRA, creation of heritage groups and cooperation with political party Sinn Féin.
The sources listed above should provide an important contribution to the topic of demise of nationalist political parties and their transformation. Additional sources important for the research are listed below.

References
BJØRGO, Tore a John HORGAN, 2009. Leaving terrorism behind: individual and collective disengagement. New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-020-3884-751.
CLAUSET, Aaron, Kristian Skrede GLEDITSCH a Petter HOLME, 2012. The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations. PLoS ONE. 7(11). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048633. ISSN 1932-6203. Dostupné také z: https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048633
CLUBB, Gordon, 2017. Social movement de-radicalisation and the decline of terrorism: the morphogenesis of the Irish Republican movement. NewYork: Routledge. ISBN 978-131-5678-290.
CRONIN, A.K., 2009/08/24. How terrorism ends: Understanding the decline and demise of terrorist campaigns: Understanding the decline and demise of terrorist campaigns. How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. 1-311.
DAXECKER, Ursula E. and Michael L. HESS, 2013. Repression Hurts: Coercive Government Responses and the Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. British Journal of Political Science [online]. B.m.: Cambridge University Press, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 559–577. Retrieved z: doi:10.1017/S0007123412000452
GAIBULLOEV, Khusrav a Todd SANDLER, 2013. Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations. Southern Economic Journal. 79(4), 774-792. DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-2012.269. ISSN 0038-4038. Dostupné také z: http://doi.wiley.com/10.4284/0038-4038-2012.269
GAIBULLOEV, Khusrav a Todd SANDLER, 2014. An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end. Public Choice. 160(1-2), 25-44. DOI: 10.1007/s11127-013-0136-0. ISSN 0048-5829. Dostupné také z: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-013-0136-0
HAYES, Bernadette C. a Ian MCALLISTER, 2005. Public Support for Political Violence and Paramilitarism in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Terrorism and Political Violence. 17(4), 599-617. DOI: 10.1080/095465590944569. ISSN 0954-6553. Dostupné také z: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/095465590944569
HORGAN, John, 2009/01/01. Walking away from terrorism: Accounts of disengagement from radical and extremist movements: Accounts of disengagement from radical and extremist movements. Walking Away from Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement from Radical and Extremist Movements. 1-186. DOI: 10.4324/9780203874738.
Chenoweth, Erica, et al. "Correspondence: What Makes Terrorists Tick” International Security, Vol.33, No.4 (Spring 2009) pp.180-202.
JONES, Seth G. a Martin C. LIBICKI, 2008. How Terrorist Groups End Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida. RAND Corporation. ISBN 9780833044655. Dostupné také z: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg741rc
MURUA, Imanol, 2017. Ending ETA's armed campaign: how and why the Basque armed group abandoned violence. New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-113-8658-233.
OU, Chaomin, Wenyao YANG, Zelin WU a Yang LI, 2017. Disintegration analysis of terrorist organizations based on social networks. 2017 8th IEEE International Conference on Software Engineering and Service Science (ICSESS). IEEE, 2017, 648-651. DOI: 10.1109/ICSESS.2017.8342998. ISBN 978-1-5386-0497-7. Dostupné také z: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8342998/
REKAWEK, Kacper Edward, 2008. How ‘terrorism’ does not end: the case of the Official Irish Republican Army. Critical Studies on Terrorism. 1(3), 359-376. DOI: 10.1080/17539150802515038. ISSN 1753-9153. Dostupné také z: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17539150802515038
RICHARDS, A., 2001. Terrorist Groups and Political Fronts: The IRA, Sinn Fein, the Peace Process and Democracy. Terrorism and Political Violence. 13(4), 72-89. DOI: 10.1080/09546550109609700. ISSN 0954-6553. Dostupné také z: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546550109609700
SHIRLOW, Peter a Colin COULTER, 2014. Northern Ireland: 20 Years After the Cease-Fires. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. 37(9), 713-719. DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2014.931224. ISSN 1057-610X. Dostupné také z: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2014.931224
TONGE, Jonathan, 2009. Republican Paramilitaries and the Peace Process. The Northern Ireland Question. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2009, 165-180. DOI: 10.1057/9780230594807_9. ISBN 978-1-349-30153-9. Dostupné také z: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/9780230594807_9
WEINBERG, Leonard, Ami PEDAHZUR a Arie PERLIGER, 2009. Political parties and terrorist groups. 2nd ed. New York: Routledge. Routledge studies in extremism and democracy, 10. ISBN 978-020-3888-377.

Předběžná náplň práce

Conceptual and theoretical framework
According to presented literature, there can be identified three basic ways of disintegration of terrorist group – disintegration of within, defeat of the organization or transformation to the political party. The aim of the thesis is to identify, which way is most likely for nationalist terrorist group and what factors share the most participation on the process of disintegration. Since most authors mention mostly the factors important for enhancing of survival, these will be taken as recommendations for counter-terrorist policy.
This thesis will focus on factors essential for both demise and survival of a terrorist group. These factors will be extracted from existing literature and applied on the cases of IRA and ETA and following qualitative research will evaluate the compliance of these theoretical findings with described processes of demise of both groups separately.
Since the presented literature claim, that most likely ending for nationalist terrorist organization is its transformation into a political party, this process will be evaluated as well, considering the position of headquarters of the organization in the negotiations, attitude of governmental authority, public support, legal processes, public statements etc.
This thesis will work with following research questions:
1) Which factors appear to be the most essential for a nationalist terrorist organization to enhance its survival?
2) From the governmental perspective, what is the best way to terminate the existence of a nationalist terrorist organization?
3) Under which circumstances is a transformation of a terrorist group to a political party acceptable by the ruling authority?
Following the research question, at the end, the thesis should provide contribution towards the scholar area of development and disintegration of terrorist groups, towards the counter-terrorism policy making and towards the agenda-setting for the deradicalization and disarmament of such organizations.
Empirical data and analytical technique
The data essential for the research will be drawn from official documents of both governments – UK and Spain, as countries in which both organizations operated, public statements of leaders, databases of terrorist attacks, memoires of leading members of the organizations and other scholar sources focusing on the topic. Emphasis will be put on the size of the organizations, internal development of the cooperation, public resources and governmental actions. These data will be compared with theoretical framework drawn from scholar literature focusing on the general theory of disintegration of terrorist groups.
Since there has been no official public declaration of demise from both organizations – only unilateral declaration of ceasefire from both organizations – the sign of demise would be considered as the declaration of ceasefire with no following withdrawal from the peace process (thus the actions of IRA in 1990s before the Belfast agreement would not be considered as demise and following resurrection), since this could be considered as the breakpoint common for both organizations. Information about the size of organizations and total amount of resources should be drawn from scholar literature, since numbers from both sides may tend to be skewed in favour of opposite groups.
As support to this data, an analysis of public discourse from both sides (terrorist and government) will be used as well. Cognitive discourse analysis, according to T. A. van Dijk should be applied in this thesis, with emphasis put on the macro-level approach studying rather public speeches and policy-making process. Attitudes of both sides, values, political ideologies, norms and principles of either side should be taken into account in the analysis.
The main focus will be put on inner splintering, governmental actions, steps taken from both sides to achieve position in negotiations and preparation of position towards following transformation. Main points to be focused on in the analysis consist of willingness to negotiate, statements regarding progress in negotiation and peace process, future plans of actions and threats of future attacks. Rather qualitative content analysis should be used in order to explain progress and continuation of situation and changes in discourse.

Planned thesis outline
The thesis should have following outline, regarding complexity of both cases and amount of existing literature. The outline shall appear as following:
1) Introduction to the topic
2) Two possible approaches towards the life of a terrorist organization and its comparison for future research.
a. Instrumental approach – the increased cost of terrorist actions makes terrorism less likely. When the objective is not obtained, the organization disintegrates.
b. Organizational approach – terrorism is not only about political gains, but personal goals as well. The increased pressure from outside can make terrorism more likely, terrorist group is likely to disintegrate from within.
3) Introduction to possible ways of termination of terrorist groups
a. Disintegration from within
b. Military defeat
c. Entering the political process
4) Factors influencing survival of terrorist group
a. Factors contributing to the demise
b. Factors enhancing survival
5) Case 1: IRA
6) Case 2: ETA
7) Remarks and discussion regarding previous findings
8) Conclusion