The Caliphate on the Halt: Explaining the Stalling Campaign of the Islamic State in Libya
| Název práce v češtině: | Umdlévající chalífát: Proč se kampaň Islámského státu v Libyi zastavila? |
|---|---|
| Název v anglickém jazyce: | The Caliphate on the Halt: Explaining the Stalling Campaign of the Islamic State in Libya |
| Klíčová slova: | Islámský Stát, Libye, sektářství, Sýrie, džihádismus, takfírismus |
| Klíčová slova anglicky: | Islamic State, Libya, sectarianism, Syria, jihadism, takfirism |
| Akademický rok vypsání: | 2015/2016 |
| Typ práce: | diplomová práce |
| Jazyk práce: | angličtina |
| Ústav: | Katedra mezinárodních vztahů (23-KMV) |
| Vedoucí / školitel: | PhDr. Zdeněk Ludvík, Ph.D. |
| Řešitel: | skrytý - zadáno vedoucím/školitelem |
| Datum přihlášení: | 26.05.2016 |
| Datum zadání: | 26.05.2016 |
| Datum a čas obhajoby: | 23.06.2017 08:30 |
| Místo konání obhajoby: | Jinonice - U Kříže 8, J4020, Jinonice - místn. č. 4020 |
| Datum odevzdání elektronické podoby: | 19.05.2017 |
| Datum proběhlé obhajoby: | 23.06.2017 |
| Oponenti: | prof. PhDr. RNDr. Nikola Hynek, Ph.D., M.A. |
| Kontrola URKUND: | |
| Zásady pro vypracování |
| Charakteristika tématu a jeho dosavadní zpracování:
The Islamic State managed to eclipse its former patron, al-Qa’ida, in both ruthlessness and the ability to make the world watch. Just as al-Qa’ida did in its heyday following the 9/11 attacks, the IS has also attracted a lot of attention and forged alliances with various jihadist groups around the world. Bay’ias – pledges of allegiance to a leader – have poured in from places such as Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Algeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Libya. The global reach of the IS phenomenon has been further enhanced by the returns of its foreign fighters to their home countries. At the first sight, Libya seems to be an ideal candidate for an IS insurgency. It is a country that suffered vicious and unspeakably brutal dictatorship for over four decades and it has been torn apart by an equally brutal civil war that rendered the country ungovernable. It has a young and alienated population with very little prospect of decent livelihood. It saw an invasion by foreign powers and it hosts an active al-Qa’ida-affiliated group. Finally, it enjoys significant oil resources that fall prey to anyone who has got enough firepower to capture and defend them. The Islamic State has shown it is more than capable of exploiting local grievances and dysfunctional state institutions and thrive in such environment. The aim of the thesis is to explore the prospect of such success in Libya. Předpokládaný cíl práce, případně formulace problému, výzkumné otázky nebo hypotézy: The goal of the thesis is to elucidate why the Islamic State is unlikely to thrive in Libya. The author of the thesis will demonstrate there are certain conditions (namely the lack, or rather a complete absence of sectarianism) that will prove inconducive to its tactics and strategy. If the hypothesis proves correct, the author believes the findings can be extrapolated to other countries/regions in the world that might seem perfect candidates for an IS insurgency, yet they will not provide the IS with conditions it needs to gain significant popular support. Main research question: Will the Islamic State enjoy the same success in Libya as it did in Syria and Iraq? Secondary research question: Why has the Islamic State been able to solidify its position in Sirte, as opposed to the rest of the country? Hypothesis: The lack of sectarianism in Libya will deny the Islamic State the ability to win over sufficient popular support to replicate the Syrian/Iraqi story. In other words (and using John Stuart Mill’s terminology), sectarianism is an indispensable variable that allows for a brutal, takfiri group such as the Islamic State to exploit local grievances and become a dominant player. This variable is not present in the Libyan context. Metody (techniky) zpracování materiálu: The author will apply the method of process tracing as described by Andrew Bennett and Jeffrey T. Checkel (2014). Analyzing the process of how the Islamic State managed to establish itself in Iraq and Syria and the crucial role sectarianism, endemic in the region, played in elevating it to the position of a dominant jihadist group, will serve as a demonstration that the sectarian tensions have to be present in order to allow a takfiri group, regardless of the advantages (military experience and expertise, significant financial resources) it enjoyes, achieve such success. The author will define variables that all proved to different extents necessary, though, by themselves, not sufficient conditions to allow the Islamic State rise and thrive in Syria and Iraq. Then, the author will analyze these conditions in the Libyan context. Presupposing all but one are the same, the author aims to prove the missing variable is the main cause of the effect (= the lack of success of the Islamic State in Libya). |
| Seznam odborné literatury |
| 1. Mill, J. S. (2002). A System of Logic. Honolulu: University Press of the Pacific.
2. Bennet, A.; Checkel, J. T. (2014). Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. London: Cambridge University Press. 3. Kilcullen, D. (2016). Blood Year: The Unraveling of Western Counterterrorism. New York: Oxford University Press. 4. Snyder, R.; Mahoney, J. (1999). The Missing Variable: Institutions and the Study of Regime Change. Comparative Politics, 32(1), pp. 103-122. 5. The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime and RHIPTO, the Norwegian Center for Global. (2015). Joint Report. “Libya: a growing hub for Criminal Economies and Terrorist Financing in the Trans-Sahara.” 6. Weiss, M.; Hassan, H. (2015). Islámský stát. Uvnitř armády teroru. Brno: CPress. 7. Wood, G. (2015, March). What ISIS Really Wants. The Atlantic. Retrieved from: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/ 8. Zelin, A. (2015, August 6). The Islamic State's Burgeoning Capital in Sirte, Libya. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Retrieved from: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-islamic-states-burgeoning-capital-in-sirte-libya |
| Předběžná náplň práce |
| 1. Introduction of the topic
2. Research question and hypothesis 3. Methodology 4. Libya is a perfect candidate for an IS insurgency 5. The history of radical Islamism in Libya, the Arab spring and the Civil War 6. Explaining the success of the IS in Iraq and Syria 7. Explaining the the stalling campaign of the IS in Libya 8. Conclusion 9. Implications – are the findings relevant for other countries threatened by an IS insurgency? |
| Předběžná náplň práce v anglickém jazyce |
| 1. Introduction of the topic
2. Research question and hypothesis 3. Methodology 4. Libya is a perfect candidate for an IS insurgency 5. The history of radical Islamism in Libya, the Arab spring and the Civil War 6. Explaining the success of the IS in Iraq and Syria 7. Explaining the the stalling campaign of the IS in Libya 8. Conclusion 9. Implications – are the findings relevant for other countries threatened by an IS insurgency? |